Prices up more than 550% in a year
Team Group CEO Chen Ching-wen said during the company's November 2 earnings call that the memory chip shortage is expected to worsen from the end of 2026 until the end of 2027. According to BigGo Finance, Chen said there is "no downward price trend whatsoever."
The numbers back him up: contract prices for 16GB DDR5 chips climbed from $8.70 in October 2025 to $48 by September 2026, an increase of more than 550% in 12 months.
Spot and contract prices diverge
Chen noted that the spread between spot and contract prices for memory chips ranges from 30% to 50%, meaning short-term supply is significantly more expensive than long-term contracts. "We have contracts but can't get enough volume, so we have to go to the spot market and pay a premium to grab supply," he said.
Supply and demand may not balance until 2028
Chen estimates that supply and demand will not balance until the second half of 2028 or perhaps later. "How can prices fall when there's nothing left?" he asked. Even though China's CXMT and YMTC have raised their market share to almost 10%, most high-end DRAM and NAND flash chips still come from Kioxia, Micron, Samsung and SK hynix, and Chen says the Chinese makers' prices still track the market closely.
A different view from Acer's CEO
This outlook conflicts with Acer CEO Jason Chen's prediction that component pricing will reverse by the second half of 2027. The Team Group CEO expects budget component prices to stay elevated until 2029, with high-end chips remaining in short supply. In the background, AI data centers are reportedly continuing to absorb the world's memory and storage supply.
