Anthropic asks Wall Street to believe in AGI

What the IPO filing reveals

Anthropic has published its S-1 filing for a Nasdaq listing. The company could start trading as soon as next month at a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, which would immediately make it one of the most valuable companies on the planet.

SemiAnalysis analyst Joey Brookhart discussed the filing on the Decoder podcast. According to Brookhart, the company scaled quickly to more than $70 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR), and its gross margins, compute margins and free cash flow all met expectations.

Where the revenue comes from

Brookhart notes that even with $120 billion of ARR across the two leading labs, the market remains extremely narrow. Most spending comes from the top 1 percent of customers, who spend $50,000 to $100,000 per employee. Most Fortune 500 and Global 2000 companies are not yet spending significantly.

At Anthropic specifically, spending is heavily coding-focused, making it almost a single-vertical company. The analyst suggests broader adoption in white-collar work toward 2027 could change that picture.

Why it matters

The filing offers the first detailed look at the economics of a frontier AI lab. But that picture rests on very ambitious assumptions about how AI will transform the future. Brookhart says the filing helped drive the recent rally in semiconductor and compute stocks.